Here is an infomrative and detailed video with analysis of the European debt crisis, which is being handled by the ECB using LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Operation), which is similar to QE1 and QE2 done by the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA. The debt levels around the globe are unprecedented in peacetime. The odds of restructurings and/or defaults are higher than most believe. When does debt become unsustainable? The video shows the debt levels of numerous countries have reached “problem” levels. Since the bill coming due in the form of maturing bonds is so large, policymakers in Europe have no easy way out. “Solutions” may include printing money to create inflation or debt restructurings/defaults; or a combination of the two. Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management compares healthy markets to the current state of affairs. Which investments tend to perform well during deflation/defaults/restructurings? Which investments tend to perform well during periods of inflation/money printing by central banks? What is a back-door bazooka? Studies by Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management.

In an interview with ET Now, Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holding, talks about the correction in global markets besides giving his views on commodities and India. Excerpts:

Q1: Global markets are correcting and everyone is saying it is because of Korea. Would you endorse that thought?

First of all, global markets should be correcting about this time because they have been pretty strong recently and there is always some reason to correct. This time, it looks like it might be Korea. Whenever you have threat of war, usually everything goes down at first, then you have to figure out what to invest in after the initial collapse. In my view, the thing to invest in is commodities because if there is going to be war, it is always good for commodities and if there is no war, then commodities will rally like everything else.

Q2: So what did you make of today’s sell off and the news coming out of Korea? Do you think it was just a trigger point for people to unwind positions in the market and do you think stepping into December from a near term perspective, there would still be some selling pressure that will continue?

Yes, we have had very strong markets in the past 2 or 3 months in the West anyway and whenever you have strong markets, something always comes along to call for correction. There is always some surprise and again, I have no idea what is going on in Korea, but just that nothing else is the reason for the correction, it could have been rain in Spain that could have caused the correction and the markets always find a reason to correct after they have been strong for a while and this is certainly a good reason to correct. If suddenly World War III is about to breakout, a good reason for the market to correct. I do not expect World War III to breakout by the way.

Q3: Buy on rumors and sell on news and we have seen that happening once again. Immediately after the QE2, blueprint was out, commodity has corrected and dollar actually has reversed. Do you think this is a short term phenomenon? Everyone took Mr. Bernanke for granted that he will continue to print money, there was too much of forward buying which happened before the QE2 final announcement and now the excesses are getting flushed out?

Yes. No matter what happens, America is going to continue to print money. Unfortunately that is all America knows to do, it is not the right thing to do, it is not good for the world, but that is all America knows to do.

If there is war, they are going to print money. If there is not war, they are going to print money and so whenever there has been money printing, the result has been that you should have your money in real assets. It has been a pretty clear thing throughout history. The real assets are the only way to protect yourself. Real assets are basically the only way to protect yourself in time of war.

Read the rest of the interview here.

UK HMRC at melting point

There are a million pieces of unanswered post. It will be taking 3 months to answer them, which itself might increase the problem further if a person has to pay back taxes with interest.

The UK HMRC contact centers are severely under-staffed, and that fact comes out from numerous press reports of people having to wait for a long time just to be able to speak to a tax officer to understand any discrepency in the tax numbers they have with them vs what HMRC is asking from them.

The average tax payment due is about £1400 and about 1.4 million people will receive letters from HMRC by Christmas.

So if you are in the UK and frustrated with not having any response from the HMRC, now you understand that many others are facing the same, and that the staff at HMRC are stretched to the limits already.

As long as you keep the communication from your side intact, it should be okay.

In a move to make people reduce their consumption from using oil and gas energy, France will impose a levy on oil, gas and coal consumption by households and businesses from next year.

This Green Carbon Tax will be 17 Euro per ton of Carbon emission. While Sweden and Finland already have such taxes, France is now the largest developed economy to implement such a carbon tax.

For people exposed to infectious viruses like influenza (swine flu virus or avian flu virus) anywhere in the world,  the US CDC (Center of Disease Control) recommends an N95 face mask with a good tight fit around the edge where it contacts the face.

The N95 Face Mask offers the best respiratory protection, even though it can be difficult to wear for long periods because it makes breathing harder, but its does offer real protection. It is fluid resistant and at least 95% efficient against solid and liquid particles that are larger than .03 microns, excluding those containing oil. In fact, the “N” stands for “Not oil proof”.

Therefore, very clearly, the N-95 Face Mask is the best choice if you expect to be exposed to influenza  (swine flu or avian flu).  Ordinary masks can’t prevent the flu virus.

The fit of the face mask is important so that there are no leaks between the mask and face. The “Duck-Billed” shape variation of the N-95 face mask allows extra breathing room for the face and nose.

Recommended Specification for N95 Face Mask to be used as Swine Flu Masks:

*N95 NIOSH approved particulate respirators
*Lightweight construction includes an adjustable nose piece and foam seal to reduce the potential for eye wear fogging.
*Round masks fits over mouth and nose
*Two durable, latex-free head straps
*Compliant with 42 CFR Part 84
*Provides a minimum of 95% filter efficiency against certain solid and non-oil based particles for excellent worker protection.
*Can be used in labs, for painting, for doing household projects, and for general protection against respiratory viruses

You can consider smaller sizes for children, if they are available, otherwise a regular N95 mask is still the best alternative.

If you don’t have N95 Face Mask at your local pharmacy store, please contact us, and we will try to arrange it for you.

The display at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris shows the plane status as: Delayed

Wish it were just delayed, but it has been out of communication for over 14 hours now. There were 228 people on board, including 12 crew members. The latest from BBC news

This is a new strain of the flu virus and currently there is no tested/proven Swine Flu vaccine, though Tamiflu, which was tested for Bird Flu, could be used to strengthen the immunity. Learn more here: Swine Flu Vaccine- Tamiflu

U.S. scientists hope to have a key ingredient for a swine flu vaccine ready in early May, though commercial production can only happen by September.

Offering free food was one of the ways of beating recession in the 1980s, and restaurant owners are hoping it will work this time too. Hundreds of restaurants have closed in the recent months.

The offer of free food is premised on the belief that customers would be too embarrassed not to leave behind money after dinner. Restaurants owners believe that except students, most customers would not leave without leaving money behind.

For example, the menu card at The Little Bay in Farringdon, London (featured in the photo) does not mention prices for dishes. Customers pay only for the drinks. Restaurant owner Peter Ilic said, “You can leave 50 pounds or nothing; it doesn’t matter, I will treat you the same,” he said.

Btw, if you are in London, you can visit the Little Bay restaurant at:
171 Farringdon Road
Clerkenwell, London EC1R 3AL
Tel: 020 7278 1234

And now the Lesson for those of us in other businesses, including the online business.

Its called the 5% rule, ie. before you ask for anything, offer your customer at least 5% worth of sample or value or product or service or whatever that you sell. We have seen this working in both B2B and B2C businesses.

In fact, a money back guarantee or performance guarantee of some sort also achieves the same result as above.

They make it difficult for the customer to refuse the offer, by removing all possible barriers.

In our experience, too many companies don’t want to try any of the above because sometimes things will fail, and majority of managers are risk-averse. So if you say your company can’t do it, that’s fine too. We are sure someone else will do it and go on to win the sale. Nobody is forced to give us a sale, we have to win it. This recession will test the best. So give it a serious thought.

Background:

Financial institutions have been struggling to meet the mandates of bad loans, and the global markets have been showing the effects.

Banks are allowed to lend about 10 times the capital they have on deposit (called CAR: capital adequacy ratio), but multiple banks seem to have not-confirmed to this requirement, and in effect lending much more than their safe limits. Losses on mortgage-related securities have depleted bank capital. Those securities had collapsed with falling home prices, along with increasing defaults and foreclosures.

Now the common annual-deadline-abiding taxpayer of the US will be paying for the lack of accountability by Wall Street Banks, and to an extent the Financial Heads in the US government.

While the US legislation passed a bailout package of $700 bn with good intentions (following great effort by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke)…but the what, when, where, how- are still not clear.

If so much of US tax payer’s money has to be used to rescue poor performing banks…and there’s a reason why they are poor performing …because they gave $500k to $1 million mortagages to almost everyone who asked in 2005-2007 without much due diligence (we heard about NYC road-side pirated DVD sellers getting $500k mortgages!)

And the tax contribution from the people who received those bumper mortagages probably don’t add up more than a few billion dollars, which leaves the majority of common tax payers holding the $700 bn bill….for a lunch they never had!

Initially, the plan was to buy distressed securities of the banks to help clean-up the Balance sheets of the Banks– but that did not sound good. Why should the Govt buy toxic securities which will only cause loss and give nothing much in return?

Updates:

Henry Paulson’s earlier life as an investment banker is now playing a key role in how the bailout solution is shaping up.

Most Republicans and Democrats in the US legislation agree on taking equity stakes in financial institutions, because if government money is going to be used, taxpayers should at least get the chance eventually to profit from the investment.

So the US legislation is now following the approach used by European govts — and will fund the recapitalization. Thankfully, the focus of Paulson’s initial plan — of buying distressed mortgage-related securities to improve banks’ balance sheets and make it easier for them to lend again — is not being shifted to buying equity/holding position in the distressed banks and FIs.

The latest approach of buying equity stake in distressed banks and FIs is a much better option for the taxpayer funds. At least there is an upside if/when some of the distressed banks and FIs do well, the Govt would gain from appreciation of its equity stake. In that sense, the Govt is taking the role of a mega-investment-banker by underwrtiting the securities of these banks and FIs.