Category Archives: Finance

European Debt Crisis Analysis

Posted on March 10, 2012 by MyOrbit-Team| Leave a comment

Here is an infomrative and detailed video with analysis of the European debt crisis, which is being handled by the ECB using LTRO (Long Term Repurchase Operation), which is similar to QE1 and QE2 done by the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA. The debt levels around the globe are unprecedented in peacetime. The odds of restructurings and/or defaults are higher than most believe. When does debt become unsustainable? The video shows the debt levels of numerous countries have reached “problem” levels. Since the bill coming due in the form of maturing bonds is so large, policymakers in Europe have no easy way out. “Solutions” may include printing money to create inflation or debt restructurings/defaults; or a combination of the two. Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management compares healthy markets to the current state of affairs. Which investments tend to perform well during deflation/defaults/restructurings? Which investments tend to perform well during periods of inflation/money printing by central banks? What is a back-door bazooka? Studies by Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management.

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Posted in Accounting & Finance, Finance, Geo-Europe

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Notes for Commercial Real Estate Investments

Posted on October 18, 2010 by MyOrbit-Team| Leave a comment

Commercial real estate is defined as property that is used for the purpose of commerce. For example, an office building, a warehouse, retail store, shopping center or an apartment building with five or more units.

Today in 2010, due to the global recession since 2008, there is a much higher supply of commercial real estate than its demand, and hence the prices are attractive and can be negotiated hard by interested buyers.

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/07/05/0529_commercialrealestate/image/4_gherkinbuilding.jpg

We expect that commercial real estate prices may correct by 10-20% in 2011 depending on the country and city. In general one can’t go wrong with buying commercial real estate (office space, rather than shopping malls) in big cities if the time frame is 5-10 years.

The risk-reward is more in commercial property than in residential property. Commercial real estate returns can give attractive over 5-10 year period; much better than you would get from residential real estate of the same proportion.

Location is very important in commercial real estate. Our experience has been that “it is better in general” to have a small space at a busy city-center/downtown place, than to a big space at a suburb.

London and New York are two cities that will deliver good returns despite recession if you can invest for 5-10 years. Irrespective of where you are in the world, see if you can invest in commercial property in high growth cities like Mumbai, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Shanghai, etc. These cities can deliver 5x returns in 10 years. Continue reading →

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Posted in 5 Questions, Contracts & Legal, Finance, Investments, MyOrbit Blogs, Real Estate

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How to Create Economic Growth in America- 10Aug2010

Posted on August 12, 2010 by MyOrbit-Team| 1 Comment

Michael Pento, senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital, and Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist with Miller Tabak, debate the issues in this clip.

I strongly disagree with Michael Pento, who says a depression should be encouraged in America. His view that the govt. should be as impotent as possible, is one of the most funny statements in the recent months. The need is to increase the money supply, not decrease it. The asset prices (home prices) will automatically fall down gradually in the coming years, based on demand-supply, but it will avoid a crash. Today is not the time to trim the role of the Govt.

If anything can prevent America from depression with deflation, it is the US Govt taking the lead with offering new economic stimulus packages – for infrastructure, for education, for vocational training, etc. Fiscal policy levers/incentives must be used to spur private sector growth, where in the govt. either becomes a buyer or actively sources buyers through export opportunities.

The need is for the govt. to take charge and play a major role. US businesses alone can’t do much. In addition, taxes on the rich must be renewed, not removed. Unless job growth happens, no real economic recovery is possible.
-Shankar

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Posted in 5 Questions, Capital Markets, Finance, Geo-Americas, MyOrbit Videos, People, Podcasts

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Thoughts On 1000 Point Fall in Dow Jones

Posted on May 8, 2010 by MyOrbit-Team| Leave a comment

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/05/07/business/07trade_graphic/07trade_graphic-popup.jpg

Create a massive fall in the market large enough to trigger stop-losses typically set up at 5% drop, and then buy blue chip stocks at 30% less price before they recover, sell Put Options at 1000% gain, blame it all on computers and trading algorithms. Some person or some company somewhere has walked away with billions in profits after this event. It looks very well planned. This event was most probably an example of higest form of market manipulation, a bold master stroke, though illegal and unethical.

To find answers, we need to check the money-trail. Continue reading →

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Posted in Artificial Intelligence & Robotics, Banking & Financial Services, Capital Markets, Finance, Geo-Americas, Interests, MyOrbit Blogs, Risk Management, Software

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