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Tags: Learn American Sign Language, Learn Dutch, learn foreign languages, Learn French, Learn German, Learn Italian, Learn Japanese, Learn Spanish, Learn Swedish

There have been some positive developments: The functioning of financial markets and the banking system in the United States has improved significantly. Manufacturing production in the United States has risen nearly 15 percent since its trough, driven substantially by growth in exports; indeed, the U.S. trade deficit has been notably lower recently than it was before the crisis, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, and productivity gains in some industries have been impressive.

Nevertheless, it is clear that, overall, the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. Recent revisions of government economic data show the recession as having been even deeper, and the recovery weaker, than previously estimated; indeed, by the second quarter of this year–the latest quarter for which official estimates are available–aggregate output in the United States still had not returned to the level that it had attained before the crisis. Slow economic growth has in turn led to slow rates of increase in jobs and household incomes.

The pattern of sluggish growth was particularly evident in the first half of this year, with real gross domestic product (NYSE:GDP) estimated to have increased at an average annual rate of less than 1 percent. Some of this weakness can be attributed to temporary factors. Notably, earlier this year, political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, strong growth in emerging market economies, and other developments contributed to significant increases in the prices of oil and other commodities, which damped consumer purchasing power and spending; and the disaster in Japan disrupted global supply chains and production, particularly in the automobile industry. With commodity prices having come off their highs and manufacturers’ problems with supply chains well along toward resolution, growth in the second half of the year seems likely to be more rapid than in the first half.

However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also continue to restrain the pace of recovery. Consequently, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now expects a somewhat slower pace of economic growth over coming quarters than it did at the time of the June meeting, when Committee participants most recently submitted economic forecasts.

Consumer behavior has both reflected and contributed to the slow pace of recovery. Households have been very cautious in their spending decisions, as declines in house prices and in the values of financial assets have reduced household wealth, and many families continue to struggle with high debt burdens or reduced access to credit.

Probably the most significant factor depressing consumer confidence, however, has been the poor performance of the job market. Over the summer, private payrolls rose by only about 100,000 jobs per month on average–half of the rate posted earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, state and local governments have continued to shed jobs, as they have been doing for more than two years. With these weak gains in employment, the unemployment rate has held close to 9 percent since early this year. Moreover, recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead.

Other sectors of the economy are also contributing to the slower-than-expected rate of expansion. The housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II. This time, however, a number of factors–including the overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and the large number of “underwater” mortgages (on which homeowners owe more than their homes are worth)–have left the rate of new home construction at only about one-third of its average level in recent decades.

In the financial sphere, as I noted, banking and financial conditions in the United States have improved significantly since the depths of the crisis. Nonetheless, financial stresses persist. Credit remains tight for many households, small businesses, and residential and commercial builders, in part because weaker balance sheets and income prospects have increased the perceived credit risk of many potential borrowers. We have also recently seen bouts of elevated volatility and risk aversion in financial markets, partly in reaction to fiscal concerns both here and abroad.

Domestically, the controversy during the summer regarding the raising of the federal debt ceiling and the downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by one of the major rating agencies contributed to the financial turbulence that occurred around that time. Outside the United States, concerns about sovereign debt in Greece and other euro-zone countries, as well as about the sovereign debt exposures of the European banking system, have been a significant source of stress in global financial markets. European leaders are strongly committed to addressing these issues, but the need to obtain agreement among a large number of countries to put in place necessary backstops and to address the sources of the fiscal problems has slowed the process of finding solutions. It is difficult to judge how much these financial strains have affected U.S. economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence, and that they pose ongoing risks to growth.

Another factor likely to weigh on the U.S. recovery is the increasing drag being exerted by the government sector. Notably, state and local governments continue to tighten their belts by cutting spending and employment in the face of ongoing budgetary pressures, while the future course of federal fiscal policies remains quite uncertain.

To be sure, fiscal policymakers face a complex situation. I would submit that, in setting tax and spending policies for now and the future, policymakers should consider at least four key objectives. One crucial objective is to achieve long-run fiscal sustainability. The federal budget is clearly not on a sustainable path at present. The Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, formed as part of the Budget Control Act, is charged with achieving $1.5 trillion in additional deficit reduction over the next 10 years on top of the spending caps enacted this summer. Accomplishing that goal would be a substantial step; however, more will be needed to achieve fiscal sustainability.

A second important objective is to avoid fiscal actions that could impede the ongoing economic recovery. These first two objectives are certainly not incompatible, as putting in place a credible plan for reducing future deficits over the longer term does not preclude attending to the implications of fiscal choices for the recovery in the near term. Third, fiscal policy should aim to promote long-term growth and economic opportunity. As a nation, we need to think carefully about how federal spending priorities and the design of the tax code affect the productivity and vitality of our economy in the longer term. Fourth, there is evident need to improve the process for making long-term budget decisions, to create greater predictability and clarity, while avoiding disruptions to the financial markets and the economy. In sum, the nation faces difficult and fundamental fiscal choices, which cannot be safely or responsibly postponed.

Returning to the discussion of the economic outlook, let me turn now to the prospects for inflation. Prices of many commodities, notably oil, increased sharply earlier this year, as I noted, leading to higher retail gasoline and food prices. In addition, producers of other goods and services were able to pass through some of their higher input costs to their customers. Separately, the global supply disruptions associated with the disaster in Japan put upward pressure on prices of motor vehicles. As a result of these influences, inflation picked up during the first half of this year; over that period, the price index for personal consumption expenditures rose at an annual rate of about 3-1/2 percent, compared with an average of less than 1-1/2 percent over the preceding two years.

As the FOMC anticipated, however, inflation has begun to moderate as these transitory influences wane. In particular, the prices of oil and many other commodities have either leveled off or have come down from their highs, and the step-up in automobile production has started to reduce pressures on the prices of cars and light trucks. Importantly, the higher rate of inflation experienced so far this year does not appear to have become ingrained in the economy. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable according to surveys of households and economic forecasters, and the five-year-forward measure of inflation compensation derived from yields on nominal and inflation-protected Treasury securities suggests that inflation expectations among investors may have moved lower recently. In addition to the stability of longer-term inflation expectations, the substantial amount of resource slack in U.S. labor and product markets should continue to restrain inflationary pressures.

In view of the deterioration in the economic outlook over the summer and the subdued inflation picture over the medium run, the FOMC has taken several steps recently to provide additional policy accommodation. At the August meeting, the Committee provided greater clarity about its outlook for the level of short-term interest rates by noting that economic conditions were likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. And at our meeting in September, the Committee announced that it intends to increase the average maturity of the securities in the Federal Reserve’s portfolio. Specifically, it intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less, leaving the size of our balance sheet approximately unchanged. This maturity extension program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more supportive of economic growth than they would otherwise have been.

The Committee also announced in September that it will begin reinvesting principal payments on its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities rather than in longer-term Treasury securities. By helping to support mortgage markets, this action too should contribute to a stronger economic recovery. The Committee will continue to closely monitor economic developments and is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Monetary policy can be a powerful tool, but it is not a panacea for the problems currently faced by the U.S. economy. Fostering healthy growth and job creation is a shared responsibility of all economic policymakers, in close cooperation with the private sector. Fiscal policy is of critical importance, as I have noted today, but a wide range of other policies–pertaining to labor markets, housing, trade, taxation, and regulation, for example–also have important roles to play. For our part, we at the Federal Reserve will continue to work to help create an environment that provides the greatest possible economic opportunity for all Americans.

This afternoon, Congress approved a compromise to reduce the deficit and avert a default that would have devastated the economy. Speaking from the Rose Garden, President Obama thanked the American people for reaching out to their elected officials during the debate, and stressed that this compromise guarantees more than $2 trillion in deficit reduction, and will ensure that as a nation we live within our means, while still making key investments in things that lead to new jobs, like education and research.

The President noted that this is just the first step, and that both parties must work together on a larger plan for the long-term health of our economy:

And since you can’t close the deficit with just spending cuts, we’ll need a balanced approach where everything is on the table. Yes, that means making some adjustments to protect health care programs like Medicare so they’re there for future generations. It also means reforming our tax code so that the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations pay their fair share. And it means getting rid of taxpayer subsidies to oil and gas companies, and tax loopholes that help billionaires pay a lower tax rate than teachers and nurses.

I’ve said it before; I will say it again: We can’t balance the budget on the backs of the very people who have borne the biggest brunt of this recession. We can’t make it tougher for young people to go to college, or ask seniors to pay more for health care, or ask scientists to give up on promising medical research because we couldn’t close a tax shelter for the most fortunate among us. Everyone is going to have to chip in. It’s only fair. That’s the principle I’ll be fighting for during the next phase of this process.

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant had an explosion today after the nuclear core could not cool down due to lack of cooling system, which went down due to the earthquake damage. Though the plant crew tried to bring the reactor’s temperature down during the last 24 hours, the manual effort was not enough compared to the coolant requirements for the nuclear reactor. And the explosion of the reactor building is an indication that manual cooling was not successful, and now radiation leakage is on. Workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant plan to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor’s temperature down to safe levels, which may take two days. Radiation levels are said to have fallen since the explosion but authorities have expanded the evacuation to include a radius of 20 km.

This accident is the worst case scenario in nuclear power plant design, because two natural disasters have struck in quick succession: massive 8.9 richter scale earthquake, and then a tsunami. Even the back up systems failed. There will be many important lessons from this accident on improving design of nuclear power plants. The reporter from Russia Today asks a valid question: how safe is it to have a nuclear power plant in an earthquake prone area? Each country will make its own decisions based on their energy requirements, still its worth discussing this aspect in the near future.

It is being estimated that about $15 billion loss is covered by insurance in the current earthquake plus tsunami in Japan. But that does not consider any damage from nuclear radiation consequence, which in healthcare costs could be 5-10x more spread over many years. So as long as nuclear radiation is contained in this case, all other losses can be recouped in a short time, except the loss of people.

Wishing rapid recovery to the people of Japan.

On October 13, 2007, after enduring the elements for 16 hours and 43 minutes, Scott Rigsby became the first double amputee in the world to finish an Ironman distance triathlon with prosthetics at the 140.6-mile World Championship in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii.   Scott is a living example that if you have enough will power, you can overcome gigantic obstacles. All my obstacles look small in front of what Scott has faced and overcome. Scott: you are an inspiration to me and many others worldwide.

While we may not speak about it, but a poor girl child in India has a tough life. And if such a girl child is abandoned/orphaned, plus blind/disabled, that’s like worst case scenario with abuse waiting to happen amidst a difficult life. However, one person I know is helping such girls. She is Prashantha, the founder of Prerana Resource Centre at Bangalore.

“Prerana” means inspiration in Hindi, and Prerana Resource Centre offers that plus more to blind/disabled girls many of whom are also orphans, by giving them a safe shelter, training them, providing employment and instilling confidence in them to lead a normal life in spite of their handicap.

I have known Prerana Resource Centre since 2003, and have been at the centre; one of the most humbling moments of my life, to receive warm welcome by blind/disabled girls who live one day at a time in a bare minimum shelter, but they have hope. And that hope is because of Prashantha. She has put everything she owns behind her cause, and her commitment to help these girls is deep. Even at very difficult moments, she maintains her smile and positive outlook – that somehow things will fall in place despite the constant shortage of resources to help the girls.

Please see if it you can contribute; every bit counts. I personally guarantee Prashantha’s sincerity and hard work, and through this post, I want to bring her cause in front of more people. You can help in a variety of ways: buy food, clothes, or just give money, which they put in fixed deposit and use the interest every month. And if you are in Bangalore, you can visit the Centre, which will make everyone there happy. Their website is: www.prc.co.in

Thanks,
Shankar

In an interview with ET Now, Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holding, talks about the correction in global markets besides giving his views on commodities and India. Excerpts:

Q1: Global markets are correcting and everyone is saying it is because of Korea. Would you endorse that thought?

First of all, global markets should be correcting about this time because they have been pretty strong recently and there is always some reason to correct. This time, it looks like it might be Korea. Whenever you have threat of war, usually everything goes down at first, then you have to figure out what to invest in after the initial collapse. In my view, the thing to invest in is commodities because if there is going to be war, it is always good for commodities and if there is no war, then commodities will rally like everything else.

Q2: So what did you make of today’s sell off and the news coming out of Korea? Do you think it was just a trigger point for people to unwind positions in the market and do you think stepping into December from a near term perspective, there would still be some selling pressure that will continue?

Yes, we have had very strong markets in the past 2 or 3 months in the West anyway and whenever you have strong markets, something always comes along to call for correction. There is always some surprise and again, I have no idea what is going on in Korea, but just that nothing else is the reason for the correction, it could have been rain in Spain that could have caused the correction and the markets always find a reason to correct after they have been strong for a while and this is certainly a good reason to correct. If suddenly World War III is about to breakout, a good reason for the market to correct. I do not expect World War III to breakout by the way.

Q3: Buy on rumors and sell on news and we have seen that happening once again. Immediately after the QE2, blueprint was out, commodity has corrected and dollar actually has reversed. Do you think this is a short term phenomenon? Everyone took Mr. Bernanke for granted that he will continue to print money, there was too much of forward buying which happened before the QE2 final announcement and now the excesses are getting flushed out?

Yes. No matter what happens, America is going to continue to print money. Unfortunately that is all America knows to do, it is not the right thing to do, it is not good for the world, but that is all America knows to do.

If there is war, they are going to print money. If there is not war, they are going to print money and so whenever there has been money printing, the result has been that you should have your money in real assets. It has been a pretty clear thing throughout history. The real assets are the only way to protect yourself. Real assets are basically the only way to protect yourself in time of war.

Read the rest of the interview here.

And it has been made possible by (1) sheer determination of the trapped miners to survive and (2) absolute top class engineering and mining effort by the rescue teams. We hear the total team was made of experts from USA, Germany, and many other countries. NASA also helped with special high calorie liquid food and psychological coaching to the trapped miners to survive the long isolation. This is a world class example for Project Management.

Congratulations to all people involved in this extremely well executed project.

estamos muy contentos de los mineros! le deseamos una larga vida!

Fenix was the capsule designed to rescue one miner at a time.

UK HMRC at melting point

There are a million pieces of unanswered post. It will be taking 3 months to answer them, which itself might increase the problem further if a person has to pay back taxes with interest.

The UK HMRC contact centers are severely under-staffed, and that fact comes out from numerous press reports of people having to wait for a long time just to be able to speak to a tax officer to understand any discrepency in the tax numbers they have with them vs what HMRC is asking from them.

The average tax payment due is about £1400 and about 1.4 million people will receive letters from HMRC by Christmas.

So if you are in the UK and frustrated with not having any response from the HMRC, now you understand that many others are facing the same, and that the staff at HMRC are stretched to the limits already.

As long as you keep the communication from your side intact, it should be okay.